No independent fiscal watchdog for local government (an 'OBR for councils')

No institution independently assesses whether council funding matches statutory duties, verifies 'new burdens' costings, or publishes forward sustainability analysis for a sector spending well over £100bn a year. The OBR's mandate is national; the NAO audits MHCLG's stewardship retrospectively; the LGA's gap modelling (£7bn by 2028-29) comes from a membership body with an advocacy interest; IFS coverage depends on project-by-project charitable funding. The IFS has explicitly proposed an independent advisory institution to assess councils' spending needs and revenue capacity. MHCLG's new Local Government Outcomes Framework is departmental self-oversight, not independent analysis.

Fiscal cliffs (the SEND override expiry in 2028, serial EFS deals) are recognised late and negotiated bilaterally in private. Parliament, markets and voters lack an authoritative forward view, so crises arrive as surprises and redistribution fights proceed on contested numbers.

A statutory Local Government Fiscal Analysis Office (or an extended OBR remit) with data-access rights, publishing biannual sector sustainability reports, EFS analysis and new-burdens verification. Interim: a philanthropically funded shadow unit at IFS/IfG. Sponsors: HM Treasury legislation; Nuffield Foundation or abrdn Financial Fairness Trust for the interim body.

// Build now: First artefact: philanthropically funded shadow fiscal unit at IFS/IfG publishing sustainability and new-burdens analysis; statutory office is the end-state.

A £100bn+ sector has no independent forward-sustainability analysis, so cliffs like the 2028 SEND override arrive as surprises, though an interim IFS/IfG shadow unit is buildable now.