No official statistics on unmet need for adult social care

In its response to the HSCC 'cost of inaction' report, the government declined to publish annual assessments of unmet care need, citing methodological challenges. No ONS or DHSC official series measures how many people need care and do not receive it; charity estimates fill the void without official status. The new client-level data collection from councils covers only people already in contact with services, so the denominator of need is invisible.

Casey phase 2 and any future funding settlement will be negotiated blind: you cannot size a national care service, or evaluate the Fair Pay Agreement's effect on capacity, without an official measure of unmet need. What gets measured gets funded.

An ONS-badged official statistics series on unmet social care need (a recurring survey module linked to administrative data), commissioned by DHSC, with NIHR methods funding; ONS and the Health Foundation's REAL Centre could co-develop the methodology the government says is missing.

// State-led: Instrument: DHSC-commissioned ONS official statistics series. Official status is the gap; unofficial charity estimates already exist and fall short.

Casey phase 2 and any funding settlement will be negotiated blind without an official unmet-need measure, and the methodology ONS and the REAL Centre could build stays uncommissioned.