No funding conduit to pay for the Fair Pay Agreement through ~18,000 independent providers

The February 2026 gov.uk factsheet sets the machinery (negotiating body established by secondary legislation in October 2026, first FPA negotiated for effect from 2028) but names no funding mechanism. Most care is delivered by independent providers whose income depends on local-authority fee rates; earlier 'fair cost of care' exercises were not sustained. The Nuffield Trust warns that an FPA without a funding and enforcement route risks provider failure or reduced commissioned volumes.

If negotiated uplifts are not matched by an instrument flowing money into local authority fee rates, the FPA becomes an unfunded mandate: provider exits, contract handbacks and heavier cross-subsidy from self-funders, undermining the policy's own goal of stabilising the workforce.

A statutory FPA funding instrument: a ring-fenced grant or fee-rate floor legally linking negotiated uplifts to LA commissioning rates, agreed at the 2027 Spending Review, with the negotiating body's remit including independent cost certification. HM Treasury, DHSC and MHCLG would build it; ADASS and Care England are the delivery interface.

// State-led: Instrument: ring-fenced grant or statutory fee-rate floor agreed at the 2027 Spending Review; HM Treasury capital.

Negotiating machinery arrives October 2026 with no instrument channelling uplifts into local-authority fee rates, risking provider exits and an unfunded mandate absent a 2027 Spending Review decision.