No credible sovereign exit option for the NHS Federated Data Platform before the February 2027 break clause

The Palantir-built FDP (£330m contract) reaches a break clause in February 2027; the Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee recommended using it and moving to an in-house or UK-owned replacement. But no funded alternative capability exists, making exit non-credible and lock-in the default. Adoption is contested from within: 168 of 214 trusts signed up, but major trusts (Leeds, Manchester, East Kent, Hampshire, Wigan) declined, saying FDP is no better than existing systems. Patients cannot opt out: the national data opt-out does not apply to FDP. medConfidential, Foxglove, the No Palantir campaign and openDemocracy contest the deal but cannot build the alternative; OpenSAFELY proved a UK trusted-research architecture is feasible but covers research, not operations.

The default outcome is indefinite dependence of NHS operational data infrastructure on a single US surveillance-technology vendor, decided by procurement momentum rather than deliberate choice. The decision window closes in 2026-27; after renewal, switching costs become prohibitive.

A funded programme to stand up in-house or UK-consortium data-platform capability on open standards before the contract decision (NHS England engineering plus OpenSAFELY-style architecture), an independently published exit-feasibility assessment, and statutory clarification of patient opt-out rights over national platforms.

// Build together: Counterparty: NHS England or willing non-FDP trusts for an OpenSAFELY-style operational pilot and exit-feasibility assessment before February 2027.

The February 2027 break clause forces a now-or-lock-in choice on NHS data sovereignty, but no funded UK alternative exists to make exit from the single US vendor credible.